IS "THEWEEKLYGLOBALINVESTOR" THE RIGHT "BLOG" FOR YOU?

IS "THEWEEKLYGLOBALINVESTOR" THE RIGHT "BLOG" FOR YOU?
Yes it is! .........if you agree on at least some of the next assertions!

1.-This World Economic Crisis (started in Sep. 2008) is not over yet and this global optimism in shares is just a bear-market's rally!

2.- World Current Account imbalances not only aren't fixed yet, but made worse by recent inept regulatory decisions taken by National & Global authorities.

3.- Japan's yen is awfully over-valued on debt, deflation & growth problems which are in worse shape than those of its developed peers (United States & Germany).

4.- The great disparity of economic advance among the euro-zone members makes it virtually impossible in the short 5-year or medium 15-year-terms not only to reduce currency risk (one of the original motivations to create it) but increases the probability of a major euro-region & world markets disruption (Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium present sovereign debt problems for example).

5.- The United Kingdom, Denmark & Sweden independent decisions not to join the "euro adventure" were the most sensible path to follow as they now show more flexible resilience in coming out of their respective recessions.They considered when asked that a monetary policy for all wasn't (and still isn't) feasible . "One size fits all"......Absurd!

6.- China does not have (yet) a market economy and worst of all, it lacks a democratic political system, both of which, undoubtedly, make sovereign countries' financial environment safer through their inherent "check & balances" national and international decisions' process.

7.- China (without denying many of its 30-year incontestably social and economic advances) is the biggest asset-bubble of all. This was inflated in the same irrational way the other past bubbles were (commodities, real-estate, etc).

8.- Asia and some Central-Europe and & Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, etc) which have relied too much either on exports, foreign direct investment (to & from China), or commodity prices are the ones to suffer most when this giant dragon's bubble deflates.

9.- You reject world financial over-regulation.

And Last But Not Least:

10.- You trust Free Markets (Thus Free Trade) to Get Us out of this mess.

If you agree with most of the above statements (or at least with some of the principal ones) then allow me to be your host from time to time in order to inform you of the last events of this developing international financial drama (take a look 2 or 3 times a week).

Of course daily updates are always available

In case that you want to discuss any part or parts of my expositions or ideology, feel free to contact me directly through my twitter address-account (above), this blog's mechanisms or via my e-mail (below please)!

Finally, don't forget to review my 3-year events archive (fundamental economic analysis), which depicts the whole crisis' follow-up through my careful choice of related stories, backed-up by my almost 30 years of both, empirical and professional assessment of past World Economic Crises.

Wish You a Great 2011!

Juan Carlos Nava

Your Opinion to:
juancarlosnavanava@gmail.com

jeudi 6 août 2009

WHO AM I ?

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A Note:

I have been closely following world economic and financial crises for over 30 years. I have even "experienced" some of them as an entrepreneur (Information Technology), others as a senior executive (Purchasing Manager) for global companies (Akso-Nobel (Intervet), Beecham Inc. among others) but most importantly I have experienced them as a common citizen in México. These crises usually started with bubbles of some sort, then extremely harsh devaluations followed by no lesser extreme economic-depression conditions. My academic interest (global business economics) is apparent by the information gathering with this tool (blog) for the last 3 years which is no more than a small sample taken from my activities during the last 3 decades. I invite you to check the start of this global crisis reviewing this "blog's archive events" right here.

Juan Carlos Nava

Is it necessary to have all thought currents in mind when forecasting World Economic Events (or crises)?

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Ioniens; Pythagoriciens; Eléates; Atomisme; Académie Ancienne; Péripatéticiens; Sophistes; Cyniques; Hédonistes; Sceptiques; Académie Nouvelle; Ancien Stoïcisme; Moyen Stoïcisme; Nouveau Stoïcisme; Neo-Platoniciens; Scholastique; Humanisme; Cartésianisme; Empirisme; Jansénisme; Idéalisme; Matérialisme; physiocratie; encyclopédisme; Sensualisme; Criticisme; Empirisme; Éclectisme; Évolutionisme; Positivisme; Spiritualisme; Philosophie Réflexive; Idéalisme Subjectif; Idéalisme Objectif; Idéalisme Dialectique; Matérialisme Dialectique; Néo-Kantisme; Utilitarisme; Pragmatisme; Intuitionnisme; Néo-thomisme; Personnalisme; Existentialisme; École Psychanalytique; Positivisme Logique; Phenoménologie; Pyschologie Objective ("béhaviorisme"), Structuralisme.

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The Theory of Knowledge has always been an intrinsic part of any serious World Events Analysis. Science (with Mathematics at the forefront) and perception (Intuitionnisme Logique) play the other two important parts!

The most important resource in life is "TIME"..... Money, knowledge & Technology help us to buy "TIME" to get or to do things!.......knowledge is ultimately the most powerful tool we have to help us succeed in life, to gain "TIME". (Whatever the "Success" word means to everyone)

"Productivity" encompasses this "TIME" importance, be it in Macro, Micro or Personal economics....(Corporations or Nations, Family or Work)

Those who master the true meaning of this word are bound to be "Ahead of the Curve" (with a little help of circumstance, of course)


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A solid background in Philosophy which has shaped my ideas expressed throughout this blog, complemented with an extense empirical knowledge on the way multinational corporations behave (worked for Beecham International Pharmaceutical Co., Akso Nobel, among others). Also of help has been a profound insight of the intricacies of labor and multi-factor productivity from applied technological tools and its correlated human capital advances, which stemmed mainly from years of being at the helm of an important IT consulting firm at the beginnings of the personal computer revolution (1980s). Underlining all of the above are my studies in management and business economics which allowed me to innitiate, add and compare my ideas with the world most respectable intellectuals' findings (Many of them Nobel Prize winners) whose theories they are known for.

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THEORY AND PRACTICE, NOTHING LESS TO ADVANCE ON HUMAN KNOWLEDGE, THE ULTIMATE OF GOALS!-------

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------INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY TV & RADIO COMMENTATOR!

-----3 YEARS OF IDEOLOGICAL DISCUSSIONS AIRED ON RADIO WITH THE PRD SENATE
NATIONAL ECONOMY COORDINATORS (2º MOST IMPORTANT POLITICAL PARTY IN MÉXICO'S CONGRESS)! ´

-----FORECAST (RECORDED ON TV, MAGAZINES, RADIO, NEWSPAPERS AND INTERNET) PAST WORLD ECONOMIC CRISES (INCLUDING THE ASIAN AND ARGENTINIAN ONES)!

-----PARTICIPATED IN ROUND TABLES WITH GABRIEL GUERRA, SOLEDAD LOAEZA, RAÚL TREJO DELARBRE. OUTSTANDING ARE THE ONES WHERE MR. PAUL VOLCKER (FORMER US FED CHAIRMAN) AND SEVERAL MEXICAN MINISTERS TOOK PART COMMENTING ON WORLD AND NATIONAL AFFAIRES (SOME STATE OF THE UNION PRESIDENTIAL ANALYSIS INCLUDED)

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My interest in World Financial Markets has its roots on personal life and work experiences originating from the 1976, 1982, 1986 and 1994 Mexican macro-devaluations (most traumatic historic economic events).

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TV AND RADIO COMMENTATOR ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY & FINANCIAL MARKETS! COLLABORATIONS WITH CNN, TELEVISA ("ECO" INTERNATIONAL TV NETWORK), TELEFORMULA, RADIO 13, GRUPO ACIR, AND SEVERAL MEXICAN MAGAZINES. CONFERENCES ON WORLD ECONOMIC TRENDS AT ITAM, ANAHUAC, UDLA (CAMPUS MEXICO CITY). WORLD WEB CONFERENCES ON TERRA, INFOCEL. SEVERAL WRITTEN ARTICLES AND NEWSPAPERS INTERVIEWS! ******************PAST CRISES FORECASTS*******************: 1994 MEXICAN DEVALUATION; 1997 ASIAN CURRENCIES CRISIS; 1998 RUSSIAN DEFAULT; THE 1999 BRAZILIAN DEVALUATION; THE 2001 ARGENTINIAN DEVALUATION; THE DOT.COM STOCKS CRASH, TURKEY DEVALUATION. ALL DULY AND TIMELY FORMALLY DOCUMENTED THROUGH TV, NEWSPAPERS INTERVIEWS, ARTICLES. (ALL THIS DOCUMENTS CAN BE PROVIDED UPON REQUEST) ****************PRESENT FORECAST*****************: A BIG CHINA'S YUAN CRISIS, AFFECTING THE EURO AND THE YEN. LEAST RISKY OF ALL, THE DOLLAR (NOTWITHSTANDING THE CREDIT CRISIS), MEXICAN PESO AND THE CANADIAN DOLLAR. INCREDIBLE? CONTINUE READING THIS BLOG!

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