--------Blog's Objective!; ¡Objetivo; ¡Objectif!-------

"The world will be better off the next decades and centuries. From human rights, environmental awareness to technology, mankind will continue to profit from research, innovation and a renewed dialectical economic pragmatism to solve any arising political trouble. The financial crisis forecast here (just a blip in economic history) is a necessary and brief step for the global markets to be more efficient as stated by Schumpeter's "Creative Destruction" idea. Yes, markets will become the optimal instrument for a profound ethical and material change and this is good for all!. Don't Worry, Be Happy. But Beware!" --jcnn-- (Find a more detailed explanation of this introductory note at the bottom of this page)

Dear Reader:

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(Updated: Actualización: 3:00 p.m. México City, 4:00 p.m. NY)--------Esta breve selección de noticias (extracto de más de 10,000 meticulosas revisiones semanales) y los análisis que fundamentan tienen como objetivo primordial el informarle cómoda, clara y eficazmente del actual desarrollo de las tendencias económicas mundiales. Traduzca (translate, traduisez) fácilmente cualquier artículo con la herramienta de Google!
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----Suivez sur ce "blog" mon avis de la crise mondiale slvp: ----

----Please follow this "blog" closely; On top of the analysis of the causes, I'll be making frequent statements (in plain language) of what to expect of this world crisis, how dangerous it could turn out to be, and what course of action regulators should take to minimize its global, national and personal impact----

----¡Siga en este "blog" mis apreciaciones sobre la crisis internacional (en lenguaje sencillo)----

Opinion and questions:

juancarlosnavanava@yahoo.fr!

JCN

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ABOVE: -----1.- Everyday: My opinion -----2.- On Fridays: Find my "Weekly Summary" of events.-----3.- On Mondays: Find the "Week Ahead" perspective (both reports will soon be available on video) -----

MIDDLE:-----1.- My "World Economy" forecast.------2.- Country by Country Analyses------3.- Who I am----------

THROUGHOUT:-----1.- Some "Fundamental Economic and Philosophical Theories" shaping my ideas.-------2.- Some "telling" world statistics.-------3.- Diverse data included as art, technology and science to depict the complexity of our present globalizing environment its feedback with international financial markets and our money, ourselves.

1.-This World Economic Crisis (started in Sep. 2008) is not over yet and this global optimism in shares is just a bear-market's rally!

2.- World Current Account imbalances not only aren't fixed yet, but made worse by recent inept regulatory decisions taken by National & Global authorities.

3.- Japan's yen is awfully over-valued on debt, deflation & growth problems which are in worse shape than those of its developed peers (United States & Germany).

4.- The great disparity of economic advance among the euro-zone members makes it virtually impossible in the short 5-year or medium 15-year-terms not only to reduce currency risk (one of the original motivations to create it) but increases the probability of a major euro-region & world markets disruption (Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium present sovereign debt problems for example).

5.- The United Kingdom, Denmark & Sweden independent decisions not to join the "euro adventure" were the most sensible path to follow as they now show more flexible resilience in coming out of their respective recessions.They considered when asked that a monetary policy for all wasn't (and still isn't) feasible . "One size fits all"......Absurd!

6.- China does not have (yet) a market economy and worst of all, it lacks a democratic political system, both of which, undoubtedly, make sovereign countries' financial environment safer through their inherent "check & balances" national and international decisions' process.

7.- China (without denying many of its 30-year incontestably social and economic advances) is the biggest asset-bubble of all. This was inflated in the same irrational way the other past bubbles were (commodities, real-estate, etc).

8.- Asia and some Central-Europe and & Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, etc) which have relied too much either on exports, foreign direct investment (to & from China), or commodity prices are the ones to suffer most when this giant dragon's bubble deflates.

9.- You reject world financial over-regulation.

And Last But Not Least:

10.- You trust Free Markets (Thus Free Trade) to Get Us out of this mess.

If you agree with most of the above statements (or at least with some of the principal ones) then allow me to be your host from time to time in order to inform you of the last events of this developing international financial drama (take a look 2 or 3 times a week).

Of course daily updates are always available

In case that you want to discuss any part or parts of my expositions or ideology, feel free to contact me directly through my twitter address-account (above), this blog's mechanisms or via my e-mail which is at the upper part of this screen!

Finally, don't forget to review my 3-year events archive (fundamental economic analysis), which depicts the whole crisis' follow-up through my careful choice of related stories, backed-up by my almost 30 years of both, empirical and professional assessment of past World Economic Crises.

Thanks for your time and let me...

Wish You a Great 2010!

Juan Carlos Nava

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La tesis de este "blog" sostiene que con base en un análisis de productividad y riesgo, antes de 2 años habrá otra crisis financiera internacional, similar o peor a la asiática de 1997 con profundas consecuencias para el mundo. Lo anterior ocurrirá debido a que la economía china se desplomará, afectando a través de distorsiones systémicas al euro, el cual sufrirá una estrepitosa caída y al yen japonés que se devaluaría en más de un 100% (por arriba de los 240 yenes por dolar), afectándose de esta manera 3 de los 4 principales motores de crecimiento global (EU es el 4º). El objetivo principal de este blog es entonces demostrar de una manera empírico-descriptiva (a través de los sucesos económico-financieros y políticos comunicados en las noticias diarias que aquí se incluyen) y analítica (teoría epistemológica aplicada a eventos) del orígen, desarrollo hasta el estallido y probables efectos de la crisis mencionada. También por supuesto y como consecuencia natural advertir de las medidas necesarias para que el patrimonio personal, de negocios y proyectos correspondientes no se vean seriamente afectados por las grandes variaciones de inflación, tipos de cambio, tasas de interés, nivel de consumo agregado (fundamental para las empresas), desempleo, etc., que este fenómeno traería consigo. Finalmente, señalar los posibles beneficios y oportunidades de inversión de esta crisis (todas lo hacen). Otras cuestiones que trataré de contestar serán: ¿Qué ocurrirá con Estados Unidos, Cánada y México? ¿Perderá el dólar americano su poderío global? ¿Hasta cuándo se retornará a la normalidad económica?
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