HOW RISKY IS YOUR CURRENCY (II)?

How risky is your national currency?---How would it affect your money (investments, company, job, plans, health, etc)-------MY 1st GLOBAL CRISIS EVALUATION (CONCISE AND NO TECHNICALITIES) ABOVE PLEASE! ----Against all odds?---China's Economy Will Crash! ----The Euro-Zone Will Unravel! ----The Yen Will Suffer a Macro-Devaluation! ----Where Would The World's Financial Safe Havens then Be Located ? Please Read On!------MI PRONÓSTICO PARA EL 2009-----(Ver la parte media inferior de la página -"blog"--por favor---)

(Lea por favor en la parte de abajo de este "blog" mis estimaciones de crecimiento económico mundial y nacional (fundamentadas en la información aquí analizada), el cuidadoso monitoreo de China (por su muy probable repercusión en una crisis global), además de mi posición sobre diversos temas de interés general)-----------------------Dollar recovery; to be continued..? --------------Oil, gasoline and food prices:---------------- (United States, Euro-Zone, Britain and other countries continue to cut their rates, to fight financial and growth fears!)-------------------------

1.-This World Economic Crisis (started in Sep. 2008) is not over yet and this global optimism in shares is just a bear-market's rally!

2.- World Current Account imbalances not only aren't fixed yet, but made worse by recent inept regulatory decisions taken by National & Global authorities.

3.- Japan's yen is awfully over-valued on debt, deflation & growth problems which are in worse shape than those of its developed peers (United States & Germany).

4.- The great disparity of economic advance among the euro-zone members makes it virtually impossible in the short 5-year or medium 15-year-terms not only to reduce currency risk (one of the original motivations to create it) but increases the probability of a major euro-region & world markets disruption (Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium present sovereign debt problems for example).

5.- The United Kingdom, Denmark & Sweden independent decisions not to join the "euro adventure" were the most sensible path to follow as they now show more flexible resilience in coming out of their respective recessions.They considered when asked that a monetary policy for all wasn't (and still isn't) feasible . "One size fits all"......Absurd!

6.- China does not have (yet) a market economy and worst of all, it lacks a democratic political system, both of which, undoubtedly, make sovereign countries' financial environment safer through their inherent "check & balances" national and international decisions' process.

7.- China (without denying many of its 30-year incontestably social and economic advances) is the biggest asset-bubble of all. This was inflated in the same irrational way the other past bubbles were (commodities, real-estate, etc).

8.- Asia and some Central-Europe and & Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, etc) which have relied too much either on exports, foreign direct investment (to & from China), or commodity prices are the ones to suffer most when this giant dragon's bubble deflates.

9.- You reject world financial over-regulation.

And Last But Not Least:

10.- You trust Free Markets (Thus Free Trade) to Get Us out of this mess.

If you agree with most of the above statements (or at least with some of the principal ones) then allow me to be your host from time to time in order to inform you of the last events of this developing international financial drama (take a look 2 or 3 times a week).

Of course daily updates are always available

In case that you want to discuss any part or parts of my expositions or ideology, feel free to contact me directly through my twitter address-account (above), this blog's mechanisms or via my e-mail which is at the upper part of this screen!

Finally, don't forget to review my 3-year events archive (fundamental economic analysis), which depicts the whole crisis' follow-up through my careful choice of related stories, backed-up by my almost 30 years of both, empirical and professional assessment of past World Economic Crises.

Thanks for your time and let me...

Wish You a Great 2010!

Juan Carlos Nava

VERY HIGH RISK:----Real:------Yuan:-----Czech Republic:-----Denmark:-----Euro:----Hong Kong Dollar:----Hungary:-----Yen:----Norway:----Sweden:----Switzerland:-----Egypt:-----Russia:----Saudi-Arabia:-----Thailand----Venezuelan Bolivar.

MODERATE RISK:.-----New Zealand Dollar:----Australian Dollar:----Argentina:-----Taiwán:-----S. Korea:

LOW RISK:.-----US Dollar:-----Mexican Peso:----Canadian Dollar:-----Chilean Peso:----British Pound:-----

It all has to do with Sovereign Debt---- Geo-Politics, Interest-Rate differencials, Financial Bubbles, Business Cycle, Regular Economic Fundamentals, Commodity Prices, Trade Partners and last but not least Productivity.