IS "THEWEEKLYGLOBALINVESTOR" THE RIGHT "BLOG" FOR YOU?

IS "THEWEEKLYGLOBALINVESTOR" THE RIGHT "BLOG" FOR YOU?
Yes it is! .........if you agree on at least some of the next assertions!

1.-This World Economic Crisis (started in Sep. 2008) is not over yet and this global optimism in shares is just a bear-market's rally!

2.- World Current Account imbalances not only aren't fixed yet, but made worse by recent inept regulatory decisions taken by National & Global authorities.

3.- Japan's yen is awfully over-valued on debt, deflation & growth problems which are in worse shape than those of its developed peers (United States & Germany).

4.- The great disparity of economic advance among the euro-zone members makes it virtually impossible in the short 5-year or medium 15-year-terms not only to reduce currency risk (one of the original motivations to create it) but increases the probability of a major euro-region & world markets disruption (Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium present sovereign debt problems for example).

5.- The United Kingdom, Denmark & Sweden independent decisions not to join the "euro adventure" were the most sensible path to follow as they now show more flexible resilience in coming out of their respective recessions.They considered when asked that a monetary policy for all wasn't (and still isn't) feasible . "One size fits all"......Absurd!

6.- China does not have (yet) a market economy and worst of all, it lacks a democratic political system, both of which, undoubtedly, make sovereign countries' financial environment safer through their inherent "check & balances" national and international decisions' process.

7.- China (without denying many of its 30-year incontestably social and economic advances) is the biggest asset-bubble of all. This was inflated in the same irrational way the other past bubbles were (commodities, real-estate, etc).

8.- Asia and some Central-Europe and & Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, etc) which have relied too much either on exports, foreign direct investment (to & from China), or commodity prices are the ones to suffer most when this giant dragon's bubble deflates.

9.- You reject world financial over-regulation.

And Last But Not Least:

10.- You trust Free Markets (Thus Free Trade) to Get Us out of this mess.

If you agree with most of the above statements (or at least with some of the principal ones) then allow me to be your host from time to time in order to inform you of the last events of this developing international financial drama (take a look 2 or 3 times a week).

Of course daily updates are always available

In case that you want to discuss any part or parts of my expositions or ideology, feel free to contact me directly through my twitter address-account (above), this blog's mechanisms or via my e-mail (below please)!

Finally, don't forget to review my 3-year events archive (fundamental economic analysis), which depicts the whole crisis' follow-up through my careful choice of related stories, backed-up by my almost 30 years of both, empirical and professional assessment of past World Economic Crises.

Wish You a Great 2011!

Juan Carlos Nava

Your Opinion to:
juancarlosnavanava@gmail.com

mardi 30 juin 2009

SWINE FLU: MYTHS AND FACTS

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MY "SWINE FLU FACTS (A-H1N1)" FROM..... MEXICO CITY.......WHERE I LIVE!:
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Introduction:

The 1st time I knew of this "Swine Flu Virus" was when I heard the Mexican Health Secretary saying that "probably" a virus had affected some people in México during a TV News program the night before México's Government made the official announcement.
I was shocked since then as I knew that these kind of comments can cause panic, so being unusual for a high ranking official giving a warning of this sort if enough objective information had not been previously gathered.

The next day I got the confirmation. The nightmare had already become a reality. How grave, in economic, social and personal terms was it going to be?

Only time would tell! (minute by minute, "literally")

While I continue to develop my story (It'll take some days, sorry) please read some of the real hard facts I already have collected, so that you make your own idea of what to do when it gets to your own country as it looks it will certainly occur (The World Health Organisation says so)
Myths & Facts:

1.- The Flu is not lethal if treated within 48 hours after symptoms noticed.

2.- Enough Medicine Available in the National Health System.

3.- Reasonably Efficient National Health System.

4.- Open if perfectible Government Information Strategy.

5.- Unrestricted Press Freedom.

6.- It is transmitted by contact among humans and not from pigs to humans (though it was 1st created in them)

7.- Pork's meat is safe to eat!

8.- Better than always covering your face it is constantly washing your hands.

Diary

May 04: México's President Calderon announced many of the harsh health measures are to be lifted on May the 6th, as the virus has been contained and up to now it has not been as dangerous as it was thought to be. There is a general sense of relief in the population.

May 06: Back to normalcy? Restaurants opened and general work activities resumed after a 5 day-long holiday (Saturday, Sunday included) decreed by The President. México City really looked as usual, traffic, transport,stores, people. Only 5% wore masks (During the 2 worst days only 30 % wore them, either because they didn't have them or didn't want to. I think most of us chose not to because, actually, it is not an efficient way to stop the virus)

Conclusion:

This pandemic (almost confirmed by the World Health Organization) is really worrisome but not alarming (in Obama's words). Maybe Mexico's "Health Emergency Measures" have been a little harsher than required by the number of infected and its corresponding casualty rate but absolutely reasonable in the face of this being a new flu virus.

I'll publish my chronicle report next week (probably after Tuesday, once a clearer picture from gathered hard data appears, hopefully during this weekend):

"Swine Flu Virus: Myths and Facts"

A Brief Report with the only objective of keeping you sensibly informed of the personal, economic, and social effects of this phenomenom.

Keep yourself positive please!

J CNN

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TV AND RADIO COMMENTATOR ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY & FINANCIAL MARKETS! COLLABORATIONS WITH CNN, TELEVISA ("ECO" INTERNATIONAL TV NETWORK), TELEFORMULA, RADIO 13, GRUPO ACIR, AND SEVERAL MEXICAN MAGAZINES. CONFERENCES ON WORLD ECONOMIC TRENDS AT ITAM, ANAHUAC, UDLA (CAMPUS MEXICO CITY). WORLD WEB CONFERENCES ON TERRA, INFOCEL. SEVERAL WRITTEN ARTICLES AND NEWSPAPERS INTERVIEWS! ******************PAST CRISES FORECASTS*******************: 1994 MEXICAN DEVALUATION; 1997 ASIAN CURRENCIES CRISIS; 1998 RUSSIAN DEFAULT; THE 1999 BRAZILIAN DEVALUATION; THE 2001 ARGENTINIAN DEVALUATION; THE DOT.COM STOCKS CRASH, TURKEY DEVALUATION. ALL DULY AND TIMELY FORMALLY DOCUMENTED THROUGH TV, NEWSPAPERS INTERVIEWS, ARTICLES. (ALL THIS DOCUMENTS CAN BE PROVIDED UPON REQUEST) ****************PRESENT FORECAST*****************: A BIG CHINA'S YUAN CRISIS, AFFECTING THE EURO AND THE YEN. LEAST RISKY OF ALL, THE DOLLAR (NOTWITHSTANDING THE CREDIT CRISIS), MEXICAN PESO AND THE CANADIAN DOLLAR. INCREDIBLE? CONTINUE READING THIS BLOG!

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